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CAN Countries
foresee their continued economic
growth in 2012
Lima, Apr. 24, 2012.- Experts
from the Ministries of Economy
and Finance and Central Banks of
the Andean Community countries
and Chile stated that economic
projections for this year
indicate continued economic
recovery at rates surpassing the
average for Latin America.
These experts, gathered at a
subregional seminar held at
Banco de la República de
Colombia in Bogotá on April 18,
estimated that Andean economic
growth in 2012 would settle at
between 4% and 6% in the CAN
Member Countries and between 4%
and 5% in Chile.
“This growth is seen within a
basic scenario where the
assumption is of continued
global slowdown, but at a more
moderate pace (down from 2.7% in
2011 to 2.5% in 2012)”, CEPAL
Economic Development Director,
Juan Alberto Fuentes, explained.
Peru’s growth was tied in with
the expansion of the domestic
demand (growth of private
consumption and recovery of
private investment); in
Colombia, it was due to world
economic recovery (high prices
of raw materials, which sparked
the growth of exports and
plentiful foreign direct
investment resources); in
Bolivia’s case, domestic demand
outpaced GDP growth (behavior of
private consumption and
noteworthy recovery of both
public and private investment);
and growth in Ecuador was fueled
by the non-oil sector and by
investment in public
infrastructure.
Inflation, for its part, is
higher today in the Andean
countries than in 2010. The
sole exception is Bolivia, where
it has dropped from 7.2% to
6.9%, due to the lessening of
external inflationary pressures,
the moderating of food inflation
in response to government
policies to normalize supplies
in the domestic market and the
people’s downward inflationary
expectations. Inflation stands
at 5.4% in Ecuador, 4.7% in Peru
and 3.7% in Colombia, due to
imported inflation (through
rising international food prices
and imported fuels) and internal
elements (supply shocks and
adverse climatic conditions,
which affected food production).
Insofar as Non-Financial Public
Sector tax receipts are
concerned, in 2011, Colombia and
Ecuador showed GDP deficits of
2.9% and 1.0%, respectively,
while Bolivia and Peru had GDP
surpluses of 0.8% and 1.9%,
respectively. Peru and Ecuador
showed improvement over last
year’s figures because of larger
tax collections in both
countries and higher oil
revenues in Ecuador’s case.
Colombia’s tax receipts were
larger than projected, due to
the favorable economic cycle and
the positive effects of fiscal
reforms undertaken in 2010,
although its winter emergency
forced the country to spend
more.
In the case of the Public Debt,
the Andean countries all reduced
their borrowing levels in 2011,
compared with the previous year.
Peru brought down its debt to
21.7% of GDP, Ecuador to 22.1%
of GDP, Bolivia to 35.1% of GDP
and Colombia, with net non
financial public sector debt
figures at the third quarter, to
24.3% of PIB.
Participants at
the subregional meeting, held
with the support of the French
Cooperation Agency at the
headquarters of Banco de la
República de Colombia, included
the Andean Community Group of
Non-Official Sector Economists,
together with representatives of
the Andean Development
Corporation (CAF), the Latin
American Reserve Fund (FLAR),
the Economic Commission for
Latin America (CEPAL) and the
Latin American Economic System (SELA).
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